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Monitoring and predicting disease outbreaks early enough to prevent
them or reduce their impact on society is a major goal of the DoD's
Global Emerging Infections System. A collaborative project between
DoD-GEIS and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center accomplishes that
goal, for at least for one disease: Rift valley fever. Using near-real-time
satellite vegetation measurements and associated climate data sets
including sea surface temperatures and satellite derived cloudiness
indices predictions about emerging Rift Valley Fever epidemics in
East Africa can be made several months before an outbreak occurs.
Primarily a disease of sheep, cattle and other animals, RVF can
be transmitted to humans by Aedes and Culex sp.
mosquitoes. Outbreaks can be devastating to the farming economies
of rural East Africa and can cause significant human morbidity and
mortality. Outbreaks of RVF are now well known to be coupled with
above normal rainfall in East Africa associated with warm SST warming
events in the Western Equatorial Indian Ocean and El Niņo events
in the Pacific. Monitoring the state of sea surface temperatures,
rainfall and ecological conditions guides the efforts in identifying
areas of potential RVF outbreaks. The ability to map such areas
of potential RVF activity 2 to 5 months before outbreaks occur could
permit vaccination of domestic animals and implementation of appropriate
mosquito control programs.
DoD-GEIS & NASA/GSFC are now making current satellite and climate
data, as well maps of on areas at risk to RVF outbreaks available
on this web site. This is a part of a continuing effort in disease
monitoring and surveillance. Although the information contained
in this report has significant potential implications for disease
prevention and control, we do not suggest that this information
is absolute with regard to actual disease occurrence nor can it
be used as the only basis for public policy on this disease. Rather,
it is intended as a vehicle for identifying areas where field surveillance
and validation of can be carried out. Persons with information that
can help corroborate or refine the information contained in these
pages are urged to contact us at the address indicated below. In
addition, all constructive comments related to the presentation
of these materials are welcome. Given this intent, persons who use
this information do so at their own risk. Neither the DoD-GEIS nor
NASA/GSFC take any responsibility for the consequences of any actions
based on this information. All users are therefore cautioned to
treat this information in the manner intended -- as a statement
of research in progress for the purpose of scientific validation
and review.
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